Birth Rate For Dummies
The birth rate is dropping across all advanced economies. At the same time, people live longer. By 2050, over three-quarters (155 of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time; this will increase to 97% of countries (198 of 204) by 2100.It is common for people to delay having children until they are established in their careers and have a home (preferably owned rather than rented).
Also, many graduates have substantial education-related debts that must be paid off or rolled into mortgages.
All of this means a collapse in working population numbers is approaching. People of working age will need to pay more taxes and work longer to pay for the growing percentage of the retired population. Furthermore, a retirement period of 30 years is becoming the norm, whereas 50 years ago, retirement lasted 10 years on average. Advances in diet, medicines and medical treatment have allowed many to enjoy long and healthy retirements. Covid also encouraged many to retire early or bring their future retirement date forward.
These are all known longer-term demographic issues. However, we now have a new and much more immediate issue that must be addressed. That is a fast-developing US government policy driven more by ideology than medicine, science or practicality.
Overturning Roe v Wade has had profound consequences – this was driven by ideology but devoid of rational thought. Denying women abortion rights has had the consequence of women rightly fearing for their health while pregnant and during childbirth. There is evidence that women are now waiting to have children in order to see if abortion rights are reinstated. This may mean a wait of at least four years, possibly longer. There is also evidence that men are making decisions based on the removal of rights, with an uptick in men having vasectomies. This is exactly what the US does not want or need.
People will only have children if they feel safe and supported – this starts with medical protection.
See healthdata.org